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Tauhara Project Update

Operational Update7 February 2022CENUtilities

contactenergy.co.nz
8 February 2022


Tauhara project update: increased renewable

electricity output and improved market conditions,

but costs expected to increase


Contact Energy says the development of the new Tauhara geothermal power station

near Taupō is progressing well and is now expected to generate 168 megawatts, up

from 152 megawatts when the investment was announced a year ago.

1



Contact CEO Mike Fuge said Tauhara would generate more renewable electricity than

was initially forecast. “The way the power station has been designed means there is

flexibility to deliver a higher generation capacity. Given that the reservoir of geothermal

fluid is more productive than initially anticipated, we now expect to be able to deliver

to the full design potential.”


He said the “excellent news” about the increased capacity was tempered by an

increase in the overall costs of the Tauhara development, with project costs now

expected to total $818m, up $140m from the initial estimate of $678m.


“Obviously there are increased costs associated with the expansion in capacity and

some of the complexities associated with delivering this increased capacity, but like

every project across New Zealand we have some serious headwinds from the Covid19

pandemic to navigate which have impacted project costs.


“The pandemic’s tentacles reach far and wide and affect everything from increasing

commodity prices, to finding the right people in an ever-tightening labour market, to

the ongoing constraints impacting global supply chains.”


Mr Fuge said the Tauhara project was initially expected to be completed by the middle

of 2023, but is now expected to be on-stream in the second half of 2023. “It is a small

delay to accommodate the increased capacity – and we’re just being realistic and

pragmatic about our timelines as we continue to navigate the pandemic-driven

uncertainty.”


He said market demand for renewable energy had “markedly improved” in the past

year.


“We’ve seen the emergence of multiple datacentre projects, process heat conversions

ramping up, and strong appetite from industrial users for long-term electricity supply

deals. The overall economics for a renewable development like Tauhara will be

increasingly compelling.”



1

The Tauhara power station is expected to replace 1.4 terawatt hours of thermal generation per annum from New

Zealand’s electricity system, displacing over 500,000 tonnes per year of carbon emissions.



contactenergy.co.nz

-ends-



1/ MORE INFORMATION:


Investors: Matt Forbes

matthew.forbes@contactenergy.co.nz

+64 21 072 8578


Media: Leah Chamberlin-Gunn

leah.chamberlin-gunn@contactenergy.co.nz

Ph 021 227 7991


2/ PRESENTATION:


Contact CEO Mike Fuge and CFO Dorian Devers are updating analysts, investors, and

media on the Tauhara Project via a short presentation on Tue 8 Feb 2022 at 1.30pm. The

webcast details are set out below.


Live webcast

• To attend the live presentation, please enter the webcast here: LIVE EVENT LINK

• The live presentation will start at 1.30pm NZST.

• We recommend all attendees install the Microsoft Teams application on their device

as this offers seamless interaction, including superior sound and image quality

• If you would like to use your phone or tablet, you must have pre-installed the

Microsoft Teams application (available on all platforms).

• You may ask a question following the conclusion of the formal presentation by using

the ‘Q&A’ function at the top-right hand side of the screen when prompted. Your

written questions will be moderated, read out and addressed on the call as

appropriate.

• Microsoft Teams offers the ability to ‘Watch on web instead’ for laptops and desktop

computers should you choose not to download the application (i.e. by clicking cancel

when prompted to download the application). We recommend using the Chrome

browser.


Replay

• An archived replay will be available on our website once the presentation has

concluded.

---

1
1

8 February 2022

Tauhara project

update

2
2

Market

Schedule

Cost

Geothermal development

Capability

Execution

Process heat

Datacentres

Energy intensive industries

Thermal substitution

Resource

ImprovementDeteriorationNeutral / no-change

Key: Change over the last 12 months

Executive summary

3

of the progress over the first year of the project

Implications

Contact will

continue to invest

instrengthening

renewable

development

construction

capability to

deliver on our

capital investment

ambitions.

Geothermal

project rates of

return (IRRs)

remain attractive

relative to

renewable

alternatives.

1

2

3

Tauhara field capacity

Station capacity

Geothermal potential

Execution

Uncontracted costs at the final

investment decision (FID) are higher

than expected, predominantly

because of COVID impacts and the

station capacity expansion.

Project costs are estimated to

be around 21% or

$140m higher than

anticipated.

Marketconditions

have materially improved.

Decarbonisation demand

is expected to

accelerate.

1

2

Resourceis

world-class. The

expected station output

has been upgraded

11% to 168MW.

(previously 152MW)

3
3

Market update

New data centre buildEnergy intensive industries

Data centres proposed by the following companies

2,470

2,826

4,637

NZAS notice of

termination (Jul 20)

NZAS extension

(Jan 21)

+1,811

(+64%)

Al (US$)Al (NZ$)

Aluminium price

(/tonne)

Demand growth outlook markedly improving

Current

(Jan 22)

Several credible data centre owners have publicly announced they

are planning to invest in New Zealand.

The baseload characteristics of data centres make them attractive.

Hyperscale

data centres

Edge data

centres

20222024

2023

1

DataGrid

Tiwai smelter (NZAS) extension beyond 2024 appears likely:

•Aluminium economics materially improved.

•Rio Tinto carbon reduction targets aligned with extension

of the renewably powered NZAS smelter, without

renewable energy investment.

•Reduced international aluminium smelting capacity.

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they

are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.

A

B

C

•Request for information completed

•Request for proposals with preferred

bidders underway –targeting April

2022

Two major electricity users signed to long-term Tauhara

backed electricity signed (PPA). Contracts beginning

April 2024:

15MW / 10 years

10MW / 10 years

4
4

Process heat conversionBaseload thermal substitution

Since 2020, there has been $56m in confirmed GIDI funding for process heat conversion

projects.

Application of funding will drive conversions tonew electric boilers (~50MW). These

projects are expected online by 2023.

Baseload thermal generation fuel costs are expected to continue to remain above

estimated baseload renewable PPA pricing¹.

38

39

30

37

37

41

47

50

63

65

65

68

71

Jan-21Jul-21Mar-21May-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22

NZ carbon price ($/unit)

NZ ETS (ave)

11

18

28

45

74

102

57

40

Carbon at $75/unit2020

120

2021Carbon at $140/unit

85

Gas

Carbon

8585

$7.5/GJ

2022 real

Thermal fuel costs at average market prices

This issue is more acute when fixed operating costs and return on capital requirements are

considered.

PPA to support thermal substitution signed in August 2021:

•Long-term PPA signed with Genesis Energy (62.5MW) commencing January 2025.

•Commercial risk positions and agreement on key terms should accelerate

future PPA negotiations.

Market update

Demand growth outlook markedly improving

1

Rising carbon costs

(+85% on Jan 2021) are

nearing thermal / electricity

switching points for new

boiler investments if electricity

supplied long-term through PPA.

Current

carbon price

CCC 2030

estimate

$5.3/GJ

2022 real

$/MWh

Average market prices

¹ Ultimate pricing for renewable PPAs will include consideration of the offtake credit rating and credit support, the location of take, firming

commitments and outage cover and term.

13MW

boilers

Alltrademarks, service marks andcompany namesare thepropertyoftheir respective owners. All company, product and service names used

in this presentation are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement or that they

are or will be customers of Contact and reflectspublic announcements of intention only.

Economic switching

range

$75/unit

Equivalent

gas prices

5
5

Station capacity

Flexible station design allowed

for higher production if the

reservoir was more productive

than expected.

Thetriple-flash separation plant

design was key delivering the

efficient use of geothermal fluid.

The additional capacity was

achieved at an incremental

capital cost of ~$2.7m/MW (this

is 45% below the all-in capital

cost)

152

168

Feb-21Feb-22

+16

Tauhara station capacity upgrade (MW)

Tauhara will deliver more renewable generation than expected

Resource update

2

Tauhara field capacity upgrade

Higher field productivity means

the expected Tauhara field

output, using all the fluid under

current consents, will be ~8%

higher (200GWh p.a.) than was

expected at FID.

Consented Tauhara geothermal field

fluid take generation metrics

TWh p.a.

kT/day

1.4

0.2

Direct heat

Te Huka

Tauhara

Remaining

fluid estimate¹

46MWh per

kT extracted

35MWh per

kT extracted

25MWh per

kT extracted

Expectations as at:

24.0

1.4

0.2

2.7

100.0

6.0

83.0

Consented

fluid take

1.2

Station

output

213.0

¹ Includes an allowance for make-up drilling at Tauhara over time

6
6

Tauhara resource has been confirmed as world class

Resource update

2

0.4

2.8

0.3

Tauhara

(under construction)

Current capacity

0.2

1.4

Te Huka (option)

1.4

0.3

0.8

GeoFutures

(net of Wairakei retirement*)

0.7

Tauhara (remaining)

2.73.4

Potential generation

under current consents

3.3

0.6

6.4

+3.2

Geothermal generation potential (TWh p.a.)

Geothermal field responses

to extraction and injection

will determine the ultimate

geothermal generation

potential beyond current

consents.

Geothermal pipeline

Wairakei

115.0

Te Mihi

and Poihipi

1.7

130.0

Consented

fluid take

1.1

Station output

2.8245.0

TWh p.a.

kT/day

25MWh per

kT extracted

Wairakei geothermal field fluid

take generation metrics

36MWh per

kT extracted

Future development on the

Wairakei field will most likely

focus on the higher enthalpy

Te Mihi production zones.

Wairakei field

Tauhara field

Ohaaki field

*Expected enthalpy decline at Wairakei is expected to be offset through continuous improvement

projects

7
7

ScheduleCost

CapabilityGeothermal development

Standalone geothermal

developments are expected to

continue to be executed between

$4.5-5.0m/MW².

This is dependent on resource

quality and the technology choices.

Increases in construction costs will

be recovered through updated PPA

or market pricing.

Additional major project

capability added to the existing,

experienced geothermal

delivery team.

Flexible owners works delivery

model to make allowances for

consideration of the capacity

of the contractor market and

supply chain dynamics:

•Aligning contractor

capability with scope vs.

blanket outsourced EPC

risk avoidance model.

Capability added for Tauhara

construction will be invaluable

in delivering future geothermal

developments.

Focused, major project delivery

group setup. Led by Jack Ariel.

Expected project costs are up by ~$140m to ($818m¹)

The cost increase relates to:

1.Marginal capacity expansion in drilling and the steam

field separation system to deliver the higher output.

2.Separation plant complexity beyond expectations.

3.Costs associated with COVID:

a.Commodity price changes.

b.Tight New Zealand construction labour market.

c.Global supply chain constraints.

COVID

impacts

~53%

Estimated sources of cost increase

$140m

Costs expected to be higher than anticipated

Execution update

3

11%

8%

31%

17%

34%

Commodity

prices

Labour

capacity

Capacity

increase

Plant

complexity (triple flash)

COVID

uncertainty

Strong mitigation plans in place

for COVID, Omicron variant has

increased the risks.

Supply chains remain under

pressure on the back of COVID.

Tauhara EPC contractor has

had a COVID schedule extension

approved.

Adapted construction strategies

to overcome current constraints

and align with contractor

capability.

¹ Total estimated construction costs related to this phase of development

(2008 –2024). Excludes capitalised interest.

Targeting second half of

calendar year 2023 for

station on-stream date

²The GeoFuturesproject (170MW) is expected to

leverage existing assets and could therefore be lower

than the range once the project is assessed and

appraised.

8
8

Key project metrics

February 2021February 2022Impact and commentary

Tauhara generation capacity

and expected annual output

152MW /

1.25TWh p.a.

168MW / 1.4TWh

p.a.

11% increase in renewable generation capacity.

Cash project cost¹

$678m / $4.4m

per MW

$818m / $4.9m

per MW

Capital cost up $140m (21%). Project holds contingency that reflects the uncertain

environment. Independent assurance underway to test the appropriateness of the

estimates in the new COVID impacted environment.

Contracted or spent (%)

60% of the $678m

~86% of the

$818m

EPC contracted at FID. Progress on contracting the remaining power station and

steam field components in line contracting strategy. Remaining cash capital spend

from 31 December 2021 ~$550m.

Expected operation date

Mid-2023

Second half of

2023

Tauhara back PPAs

contracted PPAs

0MW87.5MW

10 year + PPAs with creditworthy counterparties. Offtake linked to station production

and performance. Inflation protected.

Merchant strip pricing –

Calendar 2024²

$122/MWh$126/MWh

Futures prices for calendar 2024 continues to remain significantly above long-run

pricing expectations. Market-based pricing for merchant strip remains favourable.

¹ Total estimated construction costs related to this phase of development (2008 –2024). Excludes capitalised interest.

² Average settlement of the 2024 Otahuhu baseload futures contract for the two weeks prior the 15 February 2021

Project economics remain compelling

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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