MLN – February 2023 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for January was 12.8%, while
the adjusted NAV return was up 12.0%. This compared with our
global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index
(50% hedged to NZD), which was up 6.9%.
Global equities were up +7.1%. US and European equities
both had a positive start to the year, up +6.3% and +6.8%,
respectively. Global emerging market equities also had a strong
January (+7.9%).
The big drivers of the game have changed. Remember, 2022
was defined by three big headwinds - global inflation, Chinese
growth risk, and soaring European gas and energy prices which
bled into soaring European and UK power prices. Global inflation
peaked at 10.5% last year and is now at 9%. US inflation is
rapidly coming off its highs, it peaked at 9% and is now at
6%. The Chinese government did a U-turn which started in
November last year – where they rapidly unlocked the population
and started re-stimulating growth. The China stock market has
reacted and is up almost 50% from its lows in October last year.
European gas prices faced the perfect storm last year with the
threat of Russian supplies being cut off and a lack of alternatives.
Since then, gas prices have fallen 80% from their peaks.
Portfolio
Floor & Decor (+30%) had a strong start to the year driven
by improved sentiment on US housing and the related flooring
market. Investors are beginning to look through the current
housing slump and expect housing markets to improve from
here. For example, home builder KB Homes reported its fourth
quarter 2022 earnings in January, announcing it missed new
home order expectations by more than 60%, and new home
orders were down 80% in the quarter versus the prior year.
Regardless, KB’s stock was up 21% for the month, a sign of how
negative sentiment had become on companies involved in the
US housing complex.
Cost discipline continues apace in the tech sector. The market
responded positively to approximately 50,000 total layoffs
announced in the month across Salesforce (+27%), Amazon
(+23%), Paypal (+14%), Alphabet (+12%) and Microsoft
(+3%). This amounts to a 5~10% workforce reduction for each
company. Meta (+24%) previously announced a 13% workforce
reduction in November 2022. These actions put these tech
companies in better shape to weather a possible macro-driven
downturn in revenue this year.
Activist investor Elliott Management (Elliott) took a stake in
Salesforce (+27%) during January. Elliott owns a stake in
another one of our portfolio companies – Paypal – where the
activist is driving Paypal to simplify its business strategy to
focus on core operations, rationalise costs, and return capital to
shareholders. We expect Elliott to employ a similar playbook for
Salesforce, and it is encouraging that they have taken a stake –
activist investors are frequently drawn to companies with good
business models and strong financial positions that have lost
their way a little bit.
Alibaba (+25%) and Tencent (+20%) benefited from the end
to China’s zero-Covid policy which is driving expectations for a
strong economic recovery in 2023, with the MSCI China Index
up +12% in the month. As with Europe and the US, China
consumers have excess savings and pent-up demand from the
numerous lockdowns in the past few years, and Alibaba and
Tencent’s businesses are well-positioned to benefit.
Netflix (+20%) reported significantly higher than expected net
subscriber additions and free cash flow at its fourth quarter 2022
update. Netflix ended 2022 with 230 million paid subscribers.
Netflix continues to roll out its new ad-supported tier and paid
account sharing options in 2023, which will contribute to robust
free cash flow growth in the long term by monetising non-paying
Netflix users (estimated at 100 million households globally and
30 million in North America alone), attracting new users, and
retaining existing users (reducing churn).
Portfolio Changes
There were no substantive changes to the portfolio in the month.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
February 2023
$
0.92
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.89 4.1
%
as at 31 January 2023
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
Warrant Price
$
0.03
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 January 2023
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.13
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
204m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$187m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 January 2023
30
%
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
7
%
HEALTH CARE
22
%
FINANCIALS
24
%
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
GEOGRAPHICAL
SPLIT
as at 31 January 2023
8
%
WEST
EUROPE
78
%
NORTH
AMERICA
3
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
14
%
9
%
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
ASIA
3
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
2
%
SOUTH AMERICA
3
JANUARY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
during the month
FLOOR & DECOR
+30
%
SALESFORCE
+27
%
ALIBABA
+25
%
AMAZON
+24
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 January 2023
AMAZON
8
%
META PLATFORMS
7
%
ALPHABET
7
%
FLOOR & DECOR
6
%
PAYPAL
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 18 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 January 2023
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+2.5%(5.4%)(26.0%)+3.9%+12.2%
Adjusted NAV Return+12.0%+7.0%(20.2%)+4.2%+7.6%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return +12.8%+9.2%(18.6%)+7.2%+10.5%
Benchmark Index^+6.9%+5.9%(4.6%)+6.7%+6.4%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at http://marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies/
META PLATFORMS
+23
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 January 2023
Nov
2007
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2011
Nov
2012
Nov
2014
Nov
2013
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
Share PriceTotal Shareholder Return
Nov
2015
$
1.00
$
0.00
Nov
2016
Nov
2017
$
3.00
$
4.00
$
5.00
$
2.00
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2020
Nov
2021
Nov
2022
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be re-
issued for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants
(MLNWF) on 18 October 2022.
»Information pertaining to the warrants was
mailed/emailed to all shareholders on 25 October
2022.
»The warrants were issued at no cost to eligible
shareholders in the ratio of one warrant for every
four Marlin shares held based on the record date
of 2 November 2022.
»The warrants were allotted to shareholders on
3 November 2022 and listed on the NZX Main
Board from 4 November 2022.
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.99,
adjusted down for the aggregate amount per
Share of any cash dividends declared on the
shares with a record date during the period
commencing on the date of allotment of the
warrants and ending on the last Business Day
before the final Exercise Price is announced by
Marlin.
»The Exercise Date for the new warrants is
10 November 2023.
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang
and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)
have prime responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together they
have significant combined experience
and are very capable of researching
and investing in the quality global
companies that Marlin targets. Fisher
Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.