MLN – November 2023 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for October was down -0.4%,
while the adjusted NAV return was down -0.6%. This compared
with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap
Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was down -2.9%.
There was a continuation of the trend we have seen since August
with global equities posting three negative months in a row.
US equities were down -2.1%, outperforming global equites,
European equities were down -2.6% and emerging markets were
down -3.9%. Growth stocks proved relatively resilient versus
their value counterparts, returning -2.4% over the month in
comparison to -3.4% for value stocks.
October saw multiple data points that signalled the resilience
of the US economy, including a robust jobs report, strong retail
sales data and a higher-than-expected GDP print of 4.9%
annualised for the third quarter. Inflation came in hotter-than-
expected, with the headline figure flat at 3.7% year-on-year in
September, against expectations of a slight moderation. The
strength of these data points suggests that the Fed may have
to hold interest rates higher for longer than investors have been
expecting, which combined with renewed geopolitical uncertainty
weighed on stocks in October.
Portfolio
Amazon (+5%) reported better than expected Q3 earnings
at the end of October. Amazon’s important cloud computing
platform AWS reported stabilised revenue growth at 12%, in-line
with last quarter. CEO Jassy made strong commentary that the
headwinds AWS has faced from customers ‘optimising’ their
spend is meaningfully reducing. Amazon’s advertising business
was again a stand-out performer and reaccelerated in the
quarter, growing 25%. Total operating income had remarkable
growth, growing by 343% year-on-year with margins expanding
to 7.8% (vs. 2.0% a year ago) and outperforming expectations by
45%. This margin expansion is being driven by, 1. improvement
in AWS margin; and 2. gaining efficiencies in its expanded
fulfilment and logistics infrastructure.
Netflix (+9%) shares rose 16% after a strong quarterly update
where the company saw higher-than-expected increase in
subscribers and upgraded its free cash flow guidance for the
year. Netflix now has over 247mn subscribers globally, paying
on average US$12 per month for the service. Netflix also raised
prices for the first time since January 2022. Netflix remains the
sole profitable streaming provider with the largest number of
paying subscribers. This update demonstrates Netflix’s continued
pricing power, and its compelling value proposition of providing
endless hours of entertainment for less than the price of a movie
ticket per month.
Microsoft (+7%) had a strong earnings report in October
where the company outperformed expectations on revenue
and earnings. Azure, Microsoft’s cloud computing platform,
surprised by reaccelerating revenue growth in the quarter to
28% vs. 27% in the previous quarter. Azure has been facing
similar “optimisation” headwinds to AWS and echoed comments
on easing “optimisation” headwinds. AI is scaling quickly for
Microsoft and contributed three percentage points to the growth
of Azure in the quarter, up from only one percentage point a
couple quarters ago.
Edwards Lifesciences (-8%) started the month strong as long-
term clinical data for its transcatheter heart valves (TAVR) came
in better than expectations. Both valves showed similar or better
outcomes versus the traditional surgical approach. While the
data from competitor Medtronic looked more favourable, these
were not head-to-head trials and direct comparisons are difficult.
Experts suggest there are several reasons why this new data
should not materially impact Edward’s dominant market share,
including ease of deployment and lower pacemaker rates with
Edward’s valves. The strong performance faltered later in the
month following earnings where TAVR revenue and guidance fell
slightly below expectations. An expected bounce in growth as
hospital staffing issues are resolved has not occurred this year,
raising questions around medium-term growth for TAVR. We still
believe that TAVR is underpenetrated globally, and the company
is making progress with its treatment of mitral and tricuspid heart
valves, which should sustain Edward’s revenue growth.
Danaher (-13%) fell alongside the wider industry as the industry
continues to face the perfect storm of i) lower COVID-19
revenues as vaccine and diagnostic testing volumes decline; ii)
customer destocking post the pandemic; iii) weakness in biotech
customer spend given tougher funding backdrop; and iv) decline
in Chinese sales given the weak macro environment. Revenue
declined 11.5% in the quarter, 8.5% of which was COVID
related. Commentary suggests we are nearing the bottom of
these headwinds and there are some green shoots, however the
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
November 2023
$
0.89
Share Price
MLN NAVPREMIUM
1
$
0.87 2.4
%
as at 31 October 2023
Warrant Price
$
0.00
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
2
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 October 2023
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$1.06
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
208m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$185m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
slope of recovery as we go through 2024 is still unclear. During
the month, Danaher completed the spinoff of its Environmental
and Applied Solutions business, Veralto, with the remaining
Danaher business purely focused on the Life Sciences’ markets.
We sold our position in Veralto during the month.
Portfolio activity
We exited Dollar General (DG) in September due to lack of
clarity over its steady state earnings and lower confidence in
management. In early October, DG announced that former CEO
Todd Vasos was returning as CEO, after retiring a year earlier.
Vasos successfully led DG for seven years as CEO before retiring
and was in senior roles at the company for several years before
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 October 2023
25
%
10
%
20
%
FINANCIALS
21
%
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 October 2023
7
%
WEST
EUROPE
80
%
NORTH
AMERICA
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
18
%
11
%
ASIA
2
%
CASH &
DERIVATIVES
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
becoming CEO. Quickly after his reappointment as CEO, Vasos
spoke with analysts and investors, giving strong confidence
around containment of the current investment cycle, longer-term
margins, and earnings power. As a result, our two main reasons
for exiting have changed for the better and have added DG back
to our portfolio at a 2% weighting.
HEALTH CARE
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
4
%
CONSUMER
STAPLES
COMMUNICATION
SERVICES
3
OCTOBER’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO
(in local currency) during the month
NETFLIX
+9
%
MSCI INC
-8
%
FLOOR & DÉCOR
-9
%
DANAHER CORP
-11
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 October 2023
AMAZON
9
%
MICROSOFT
7
%
ALPHABET
7
%
ICON
7
%
META PLATFORMS
6
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 16 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 October 2023
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return(4.4%)(7.1%)(3.7%)(1.6%)+8.8%
Adjusted NAV Return(0.6%)(7.5%)+10.7%+2.2%+8.0%
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (0.4%)(7.4%)+14.0%+4.6%+10.9%
Benchmark Index^(2.9%)(8.6%)+5.8%+8.0%+6.9%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
PAYPAL HOLDINGS
-13
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 October 2023
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
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2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
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Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place
allowing it (if it elects to do so) to acquire its
shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as
treasury stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be
utilised for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin warrant MLNWF had a final Exercise Price
of $0.92 and an Exercise Date of
10 November 2023
»Marlin currently has no warrants on issue
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Lily Zhuang
and Daniel Moser (Investment Analysts)
have prime responsibility for managing
the Marlin portfolio. Together they
have significant combined experience
and are very capable of researching
and investing in the quality global
companies that Marlin targets. Fisher
Funds is based in Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors Andy
Coupe (Chair), Carol Campbell,
David McClatchy and Fiona
Oliver.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.