MLN – June 2026 monthly update
1
A WORD FROM THE MANAGER
Marlin’s gross performance return for May was -0.7%, while the adjusted NAV return
was -1.0%. This compared with our global benchmark, S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P
Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD), which was +3.7%.
Market Environment
Global stock markets continued their strong year-to-date performance despite
inflation concerns and on-again, off-again hostilities in the Middle East. The global
equity index was up 5% for the month, led by the US, where the S&P 500 gained 6%,
while Europe and Japan rose 4% and 6% respectively.
Market performance this month, as has been the case for most of the year,
was driven by a handful of stocks, mostly concentrated in the technology and
semiconductor sectors. The SOXX index of semiconductor stocks was up 23% for
the month and is now up 90% year-to-date.
Outside of technology and AI-related industries, performance has been mixed. US
consumer sentiment plummeted on high petrol prices and rising cost of living. The
University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment reached the lowest level since
the survey began in 1952; with the US consumer discretionary index also hitting a
20-year low relative to S&P 500. Consumer exposed sectors like restaurants (-4%);
consumer electronics (-6%); and apparel retail (-1%) were all down for the month.
Portfolio
Performance lagged the broader market, primarily due to the ongoing extraordinary
performance of semi-conductors and a narrow subset of AI exposed stocks.
The S&P 500 has now posted gains for nine consecutive weeks, but the rally has
been exceptionally narrow and driven overwhelmingly by AI-linked stocks. In May,
only four of the 25 MSCI world industry groups outperformed the MSCI global index:
technology, semiconductors, software and automotive. Even automotive performance
was partly AI-driven, with Ford up 40% for the month after announcing a new
subsidiary focused on turning batteries once destined for electric vehicles into energy-
storage systems for artificial-intelligence data centers.
We are wary of how long this narrow, AI-driven rally can last. Periods like this often
widen as supply catches up, expectations adjust and investors refocus on the
sustainability of earnings. Memory stocks illustrate this well.
AI-driven shortages have pushed up memory prices and profits, and our lack of
exposure has been a headwind to performance. However, at current levels, these
stocks appear to be pricing in an unprecedented and potentially unsustainable level
of profitability.
Take Micron. Over its 47-year history, the company has generated around $70bn of
cumulative profit. The market is now expecting roughly $80bn of profit in 2026 alone,
followed by around $120bn per year for each of the next five years. Around two-thirds
of Micron’s profit still comes from commoditised PC and mobile memory, which is
currently benefiting from unusually strong pricing due to tight supply. In a historically
cyclical and commoditised industry, that level of profitability may prove difficult to
sustain as supply increases and demand becomes more price sensitive.
Our AI exposure is focused on businesses with more durable economics, including
enablers such as ASML, TSMC and Nvidia, and platforms such as Amazon, Alphabet,
Meta and Tencent. These companies have lagged the more speculative parts of the
rally, but we believe they offer a better way to participate in AI over the long term than
relying on peak-cycle commodity profits.
The largest contributors and detractors for the portfolio include:
Dexcom +24% in local currency terms, following an investor day that set out a
clearer vision for the global opportunity in continuous glucose monitoring (CGM).
The market remains significantly underpenetrated: of the roughly 23 million people
globally who are eligible for CGMs today, only around 9 million currently use them.
That is expected to rise to 16 million by 2030 but would still represent only a small
share of the roughly 150 million insulin-using diabetics globally. Despite Dexcom’s
strong position in this growing market, the stock has lagged the broader market in
recent years and, even after May’s rebound, remains flat over the past two years.
As the company executes against the strategy outlined on investor day, we expect
performance to improve.
Icon +15% after reporting its delayed Q4 2025 earnings and releasing the findings
of a previously announced independent audit, which drove the stock up 20% on the
day. The audit found that revenue in 2023 and 2024 under the prior management
team had been overstated by around 1% in each year due to aggressive revenue
recognition, while 2025 revenue had been understated by more than 1%. More
importantly, management’s business update pointed to strong new bookings growth,
driven both by improving customer spending and by Icon winning a larger share
of deals. We expect this momentum to continue as the company reports Q1 and
Q2 earnings in the coming months and new management moves beyond historical
accounting issues.
Keyence (+12%) continued its strong performance in May as investors remained
optimistic that a recovery in key end markets (particularly electronics) is underway
and welcomed the company’s recent progress on shareholder returns and corporate
disclosure.
Our two largest detractors for the month are both facing near-term revenue
headwinds.
Zoetis (-32%), the leading global animal health company, reported a disappointing
result as weaker consumer spending reduced vet visits and spending, while
competition in key products and a temporary lull in the pipeline added further
pressure. The company is now facing two new entrants in the billion-dollar
dermatology market it created more than a decade ago, with competitor discounting
and promotions proving deeper and more prolonged than expected. While these
periods of competition have historically been temporary, there are few offsets in the
near term, with several pipeline products not expected to launch until late 2027.
Boston Scientific (-16%) flagged slower growth in Watchman, a key product used
as an alternative to long-term blood thinners for stroke prevention. Management
believes physician and operating room capacity constraints are contributing to the
slowdown. Our discussions with physicians suggest there is still room for further
growth in this procedure. More broadly, Boston has a strong pipeline of new
devices and remains well positioned in interventional medicine, where less invasive
procedures continue to displace traditional surgery across areas such as cardiology
and oncology. This supports our view that the company can grow above market
over the long term. The stock is now trading at its February 2023 share price despite
earnings being 80% higher and still expected to grow at a double-digit rate.
1
Share Price Premium to NAV (including warrant price on a pro-rated basis and using the net asset value per share, after expenses, fees and tax, to four decimal places).
MONTHLY UPDATE
June 2026
as at 31 May 2026
SHARE PRICE
$
0.85
MLN NAV
$
0.83
WARRANT PRICE
$
0.0 2
PREMIUM
1
3.0
%
The common thread across many of our detractors is an investment cycle: investors
are indiscriminately penalising stocks that are spending today to grow tomorrow.
Intuitive Surgical (-7%), Tencent (-8%), Netflix (-8%), MercadoLibre (-5%),
Capital One (-1%) and Uber (-6%) are all currently going through such cycles.
Tencent is investing in AI capabilities across its dominant Weixin social media and
gaming ecosystem, with early success already lifting revenues in areas such as
advertising. MercadoLibre is expanding its logistics and credit card offering to
strengthen its customer value proposition, with clear evidence these initiatives
are paying off. Intuitive Surgical is lowering the lifetime cost of its robotic surgical
instruments, improving customer ROI and making it harder for competitors to gain
traction.
We believe these investments will strengthen these companies’ competitive positions
and support medium-term earnings growth. However, the market is currently
rewarding near-term earnings over future high-quality revenue streams, regardless of
business quality or profitability. This has created opportunities in some of the highest-
quality businesses globally, and we expect share price performance to improve as the
benefits of these investments become more apparent. For example, Tencent’s stock
rose 10% in the first two days of June after it announced the launch of AI Agents
within its Weixin app.
Our focus remains on underwriting high-quality businesses where we see a clear
disconnect between share prices and long-term fundamentals. This includes
companies facing near-term revenue headwinds, such as Boston Scientific, as
well as others like Tencent and Mercado Libre that are investing today to support
future growth. In our view, recent underperformance has created attractive valuation
opportunities across several holdings with durable competitive positions and
underappreciated long-term growth potential.
2
Sam Dickie
Senior Portfolio Manager
Fisher Funds Management Limited
KEY DETAILS
as at 31 May 2026
FUND TYPE
Listed Investment Company
INVESTS IN
Growing international companies
LISTING DATE
1 October 2007
FINANCIAL YEAR END
30 June
TYPICAL PORTFOLIO
SIZE
20-35 stocks
INVESTMENT CRITERIA
Long-term growth
PERFORMANCE
OBJECTIVE
Long-term growth of capital and
dividends
TAX STATUS
Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE)
MANAGER
Fisher Funds Management Limited
MANAGEMENT FEE RATE
1.25% of gross asset value
(reduced by 0.10% for every
1% of underperformance
relative to the change in the
NZ 90 Day Bank Bill Index
with a floor of 0.75%)
PERFORMANCE FEE
HURDLE
Changes in the NZ 90 Day Bank
Bill Index + 5%
PERFORMANCE FEE
10% of returns in excess of
benchmark and high-water mark
HIGH WATER MARK
$0.87
PERFORMANCE FEE CAP
1.25%
SHARES ON ISSUE
229m
MARKET CAPITALISATION
$195m
GEARING
None (maximum permitted 20% of
gross asset value)
SECTOR SPLIT
as at 31 May 2026
GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT
as at 31 May 2026
Information Technology26%
Consumer Discretionary19%
Health Care18%
Communication Services13%
Financials13%
Industrial7%
Cash & Derivatives4%
North America75%
Asia Pacific11%
Western Europe9%
South & Central America4%
Central Asia1%
3
MAY’S SIGNIFICANT RETURNS IMPACTING
THE PORTFOLIO during the month in local currency
DEXCOM
+24
%
ICON
+15
%
GREGGS
+13
%
ZOETIS
-16
%
5 LARGEST PORTFOLIO POSITIONS as at 31 May 2026
MICROSOFT
8
%
AMAZON
7
%
META PLATFORMS
6
%
NVIDIA
5
%
MASTERCARD
5
%
The remaining portfolio is made up of another 26 stocks and cash.
PERFORMANCE to 31 May 2026
1 Month3 Months1 Year3 Years
(annualised)
5 Years
(annualised)
Company Performance
Total Shareholder Return+0.7%+0.6%+0.1%+6.5%(3.7%)
Adjusted NAV Return(1.0%)(2.8%)(5.1%)+4.8%(0.0%)
Portfolio Performance
Gross Performance Return (0.7%)(2.4%)(3.0%)+7.5%+2.0%
Benchmark Index^+3.7%+6.5%+31.0%+20.6%+11.7%
^Benchmark index: S&P Large Mid Cap/S&P Small Cap Index (50% hedged to NZD)
Non-GAAP Financial Information
Marlin uses non-GAAP measures, including adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return. The rationale for using such non-GAAP measures is as follows:
»adjusted net asset value – the underlying value of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and after expenses, fees, and tax,
»adjusted NAV return – the percentage change in the adjusted NAV,
»gross performance return – the Manager’s portfolio performance in terms of stock selection and currency hedging before expenses, fees and tax, and
»total shareholder return – the return combines the share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It
assumes all dividends are reinvested in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, and that shareholders exercise their warrants, (if they were in the money) at warrant expiry date.
All references to adjusted net asset value, adjusted NAV return, gross performance return and total shareholder return in this monthly update are to such non-GAAP measures. The calculations applied to non-GAAP
measures are described in the Marlin Non-GAAP Financial Information Policy. A copy of the policy is available at marlin.co.nz/about-marlin/marlin-policies.
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC
-32
%
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN to 31 May 2026
Share Price/Total Shareholder Return
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
Share Price Total Shareholder Return
Nov
2007
Nov
2011
Nov
2013
Nov
2014
Nov
2015
Nov
2008
Nov
2009
Nov
2010
Nov
2016
Nov
2020
Nov
2012
Nov
2022
Nov
2017
Nov
2018
Nov
2019
Nov
2021
Nov
2023
Nov
2024
Nov
2025
Disclaimer: The information in this update has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary of the matters covered only, and it is by necessity
brief. The information and opinions are based upon sources which are believed to be reliable, but Marlin Global Limited and its officers and directors make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.
The update is not intended to constitute professional or investment advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decisions. Professional financial advice from a financial adviser should be
taken before making an investment. To the extent that the update contains data relating to the historical performance of Marlin Global Limited or its portfolio companies, please note that fund performance can
and will vary and that future results have no correlation with results historically achieved.
Marlin Global Limited
Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740
Phone: +64 9 484 0365
Email: enquire@marlin.co.nz | www.marlin.co.nz
4
Computershare Investor Services Limited
Private Bag 92119, Auckland 1142
Phone: +64 9 488 8777
Email: enquiry@computershare.co.nz | www.computershare.com/nz
ABOUT
MARLIN GLOBAL
Marlin is an investment company
listed on the New Zealand Stock
Exchange. The company gives
shareholders an opportunity to
invest in a diversified portfolio of
between 20 and 35 quality growing
international companies (excluding
New Zealand and Australia) through
a single, professionally managed
investment. The aim of Marlin
is to offer investors competitive
returns through capital growth and
dividends.
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
Regular Dividends
»Quarterly distribution policy introduced in August 2010
»Under this policy, 2% of average NAV is targeted to be
paid to shareholders quarterly
»Dividends paid by Marlin may include dividends received,
interest income, investment gains and/or return of capital
»Shareholders who prefer to have increased capital rather
than a regular income stream have the opportunity to
participate in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan
(DRP)
»Shares issued to DRP participants are at a 3% discount
to market price
»Marlin became a portfolio investment entity on 1 October
2007. As a result, dividends paid to New Zealand tax
resident shareholders have not been subject to further tax
Share Buyback Programme
»Marlin has a buyback programme in place allowing it (if it
elects to do so) to acquire its shares on market
»Shares bought back by the company are held as treasury
stock
»Shares held as treasury stock are available to be utilised
for the dividend reinvestment plan
Warrants
»Marlin announced a new issue of warrants on
16 February 2026
»The warrant term offer document was sent to all Marlin
shareholders in late February 2026
»Warrants were allotted to all eligible Marlin shareholders
on 23 April 2026
»The new warrants (MLNWH) commenced trading on the
NZX Main Board from 24 April 2026
»The Exercise Price of each warrant is $0.87, adjusted
down for the aggregate amount per Share of any cash
dividends declared on the shares with a record date
during the period commencing on the date of allotment of
the warrants and ending on the last Business Day before
the final Exercise Price is announced by Marlin
»The Exercise Date for the Marlin warrants is 23 April 2027
MANAGEMENT
The Manager has authority delegated to
it from the Board to invest according to
the Management Agreement and other
written policies. Marlin’s portfolio is
managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited. Sam Dickie (Senior Portfolio
Manager), Chris Waters (Senior
Investment Analyst), and Charles
Barty (Investment Analyst) have prime
responsibility for managing the Marlin
portfolio. Together they have significant
combined experience and are very
capable of researching and investing
in the quality global companies that
Marlin targets. Fisher Funds is based in
Takapuna, Auckland.
BOARD
The Board of Marlin comprises
independent directors
Andy Coupe (Chair), David
McClatchy, Fiona Oliver, Dan
Coman and Simon Flood.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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