Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited logo

Global Dairy Update November 2021

Operational Update2 December 2021FCGConsumer Staples

• First quarter business update.
• Partnering with VitaKey.

• The next issue of the Global Dairy Update will be published

on 28 January 2022.

1

Global Dairy

UPDATE

• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly

production down. EU production flattens.

• New Zealand monthly exports up.

Australia, US and EU monthly exports

continue to grow.

• China and Middle East and Africa monthly

imports decline. Asia and Latin America

monthly imports up.

• Fonterra New Zealand milk collection for

October was 207 million kgMS, down 2.9% on

the prior season.

• Fonterra New Zealand full season

forecast milk collection confirmed at

1,525 million kgMS, down on last season's

1,539 million kgMS.

• Fonterra Australia milk collection for October

was 11.8 million kgMS, down 4.8% on

last season.

• A day in the life of a Tanker Operator.

Key Dates

December to February 2022

Application Period to

Supply Fonterra

9 December 2021

Fonterra Co-operative Group

Annual Meeting

13 December 2021

Fonterra Shareholders' Fund

Annual Meeting

March 2022

FY22 Interim Results

Announcement

NOVEMBER 2021

For further details,

view our website –

%
%

%%

%

%

%%

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for September 2021

compared to September 2020

Change for September 2021

compared to September 2020

Change for the 12 months to

October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to September 2021

Change for the 12 months

to September 2021

0.52.93.3

0.70.21.9

0.2

0.6

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

New Zealand, Australia

and US monthly

production down.

EU production flattens

New Zealand milk

production¹ decreased

3.3% on a litres basis, (down

3.1% on milk solids basis)

in October compared to

October last year.

Changeable weather

patterns across the country

impacted production for the

third consectutive month.

New Zealand milk

production for the 12 months

to October was 0.6% higher

than last year.

Fonterra New Zealand

collections are reported

for October, see page 5

for details.

Australia milk

production decreased 2.9%

in September compared to

September last year.

Dairy Australia and

Rabobank have forecast

0% to 2% growth for

FY22. Production figures

through to September

2021 increasingly point to a

decline in FY22.

Australia milk production for

the 12 months to September

was 0.7% lower than

last year.

Fonterra collections in

Australia are reported

for October, see page 5

for details.

EU milk production²

decreased 0.2% in

September compared to the

same period last year.

Lower production volumes

from Germany and the

Netherlands continued

and were partially offset

by strong output from Italy

and Ireland.

EU milk production for the

12 months to September was

up 0.2% compared to the

same period last year, driven

by higher volumes across

several countries including

Ireland, Italy, Hungary

and Poland.

US milk production

decreased by 0.5% in

October, compared to the

same period last year.

Rising input costs

contributing to herd size

contractions as well as

lower milk per cow yield, are

impacting milk production.

Milk production for the

12 months to October was

1.9% higher compared to the

same period last year.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

To view a chart that

illustrates year-on-year

changes in production –

1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.

2 Excludes UK.

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in exports –

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

New Zealand monthly

exports up. Australia, US

and EU monthly exports

continue to grow

Total New Zealand dairy

exports increased by 0.6%,

or 1,654 MT, in October

compared to the same

period last year.

Cheese exports increased

year-on-year and SMP export

to China continue to be

strong. These were partially

offset by lower shipments of

butter and infant formula.

Exports for the 12 months

to October were up by

4.5%, or 155,715 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

This was primarily driven

by WMP, cheese and fluid

milk products. 

EU dairy exports

increased 3.4%, or 19,197  MT,

in August compared to the

same period last year.

August exports reflected

higher sales of fluid milk

products to Mauritania and

United Arab Emirates and of

cheese and butter to the US,

up a combined 29,228  MT.

Exports for the 12 months

to August were down

0.5%, or 32,366 MT, on the

previous comparable period.

Infant formula, cultured

products, butter and SMP

were the main drivers of

this decline but partially

offset by an increase in fluid

milk products.

US dairy exports

increased 14.2%, or

28,029 MT, in September

compared to the same

period last year with gains

observed across most

product categories.

Sustained strong demand

for SMP and cheese from

Mexico as well as cheese

from Japan are driving this

increase. Exports of whey to

China and fluid milk products

are also contributing to

the increase.

Exports for the 12 months

to September 2021 were up

9.5%, or 238,085 MT, on the

previous comparable period,

driven by whey, SMP, butter,

fluid milk products and WPC

up a combined 221,652  MT.

Australia dairy exports

increased 38.0%, or

23,364 MT, in September

compared to the same

period last year.

Fluid milk products to

China continue to be in

high demand, together with

increased cheese exports.

Exports for the 12 months to

September were up 12.8%, or

95,022 MT, on the previous

comparable period.

This was predominantly

driven by increases in fluid

milk products, SMP and

WMP but partially offset by

declines in infant formula.

NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA

%%%

%%%

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for September 2021

compared to September 2020

Change for September 2021

compared to September 2020

Change for August 2021

compared to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

Change for the 12 months

to September 2021

Change for the 12 months

to September 2021

Change for the 12 months

to August 2021

14.238.00.6

12.80.59.5

3.4

4.5

%

%

To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year

changes in imports –

4

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

China and Middle East and

Africa monthly imports

decline. Latin America

and Asia monthly

imports up

Latin America dairy

import volumes¹ increased

5.0%, or 8,906 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was driven by

higher demand for cheese

in the Dominican Republic,

Mexico and Chile.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were up 2.9%, or

58,121 MT, compared to the

same period last year.

Asia (excluding China)

dairy import volumes¹

increased 20.5%, or

81,949 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

The increase was driven by

higher demand for whey in

Vietnam, SMP in Pakistan

and Thailand and cheese

in Japan.

Imports for the 12 months to

August were down 1.3%, or

64,958 MT, compared to the

same period last year, driven

by lower volumes of WMP

and SMP, and offset by fluid

milk product and cheese.

Middle East and

Africa dairy import

volumes¹ decreased 5.9%,

or 28,896 MT, in August

compared to the same

period last year.

The decrease was

predominantly driven by

lower volumes of SMP to

Ethiopia, WMP to Algeria and

infant formula to Nigeria.

Imports for the 12 months

to August were down 2.5%,

or 119,881 MT, compared to

August last year, driven by

decreases in WMP, SMP and

fluid milk products.

China dairy import

volumes decreased by 5.6%,

or 15, 782 MT, in October

compared to the same

period last year. This is the

second consecutive month of

decline following six months

of year-on-year growth.

Declines in infant formula,

fluid milk products, whey and

WMP import volumes were

observed in October

Imports for the 12 months

to October were up 21.8%.

or 745,795 MT, driven by

fluid milk products, WMP,

whey and SMP and partially

offset by decreases in

infant formula.

LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

%

%

%%

%

Change for August 2021

compared to August 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for August 2021

compared to August 2020

Change for August 2021

compared to August 2020

Change for the 12 months

to August 2021

Change for the 12 months

to August 2021

Change for the 12 months

to August 2021

5.6

20.55.0

1.32.5

%

Change for the 12 months

to October 2021

21.8

5.9

2.9

%

%

To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New

Zealand and Australia compared

to the previous season –

%

%%

Season-to-date

1 July to 31 October

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 October

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 October

Season-to-date

1 June to 31 October

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

Change for October 2021

compared to October 2020

4.81.23.92.9

3.34.12.73.2

VOLUME M LITRESDAY

JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY



















5

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA

New Zealand Milk Collection

Fonterra's Australia

collections

for October

were 11. 8 million kgMS, a 4.8%

decrease on October last season.

Farm collections increased

4.2% while third-party volumes

decreased by 57.5%.

Fonterra collections across

Australia for the season-to-date

were 34.5 kgMS, a 3.3% decline

on last season.

Average rainfall and cooler

conditions this spring are

reducing growth rates and

pasture availability as farmers

manage grazing rotations and

silage preparation.

North Island milk

collections in October were

123.5 million kgMS, 3.9% lower

than October last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 334.6 million kgMS, 2.7%

behind last season.

Many eastern regions of the

North Island were generally

drier than average for the

time of year, while Northland,

Auckland, Coromandel and Bay

of Plenty were much wetter

than average.

South Island milk

collections in October were

83.5 million kgMS, 1.2% lower

than October last season.

Season-to-date collections

were 176.3 million kgMS, 4.1%

behind last season.

Regular westerlies led to near

normal rainfall across much

of the South Island, although

Kaikoura, north Canterbury

and Southland were drier

than average.

Fonterra's New Zealand

collections for October were

207.0 million kgMS, 2.9% down

on last October. Season-to-date

collections were 510.9 million

kgMS, 3.2% behind last season.

October was warmer than

normal, particularly during the

second half of the month, in

addition to the usual mixture of

unsettled spring weather.

Improving weather conditions

and expectations that milk

collections for the balance of

the season that are generally

on par with last season

support the current forecast of

1,525 million kgMS.

%%%

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for

the 2021/22 season

Forecast milk collection for the

2021/22 season

NZD

per

kgMS

%

8.40-

9.00

1, 5 2 5

M

kgMS

Outlook for

New Zealand

The inclusion of off-GDT sales

contributed approximately

six cents per kgMS to the

Milk Price for the season

to 31 October 2021.

%

%
%

%%

%

To view more information,

including a snapshot of the

rolling year-to-date results –

%

6

GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE

NOV JUN

NOV

JAN

APR

JUN

SEP

NOV

JAN

APR

SEP






,

,



,

.

.

.

.

.

PRICE INDEX

NZD  USD

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results

Fonterra GDT sales

by destination:

Dairy commodity

prices and New

Zealand dollar trend

The NZD/USD exchange rate

declined during November

driven by broad based support

for the USD as expectations

for recovery in the US

economy firmed, inflation

lifted, and financial markets

projected a quickening in the

pace of US monetary policy

normalisation.

Fonterra GDT results at

last trading event

16 November 2021:

The next trading event will be held on 7 December 2021. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.

Change in Fonterra’s

weighted average product

price from previous event

1.8

Fonterra’s weighted

average product price


(USD/MT)

4,322

USD

Fonterra product quantity

sold on GDT

000’ MT

29.5

NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)

SOUTH EAST ASIA

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

LATIN AMERICA

OTHER

USD 6,472/MT

1.4

AMF

USD 5,534/MT

3.4

BUTTER

USD 3,987/MT

1.7

WMP

USD 5,162/MT

2.1

CHEDDAR

USD 3,680/MT

1.4

SMP

29,515

MT

LATEST AUCTION

206,559

MT

FINANCIAL

YEAR‑TO‑DATE

7
Our Performance

Fonterra and VitaKey

partner to enhance

dairy's contribution to

health and wellness

Looking to a future where

it is likely that many foods

will be more valued for their

specific health benefits,

Fonterra and VitaKey

Inc. have announced a

transformative dairy science

collaboration to further

unlock the benefits of

Fonterra’s probiotic strains.

VitaKey specialises in

precision delivery of

nutrition – an emerging area

of research that seeks to

deliver the right nutrients,

in the right amount, to the

right part of the body at the

right time.

Co-founded by

Dr. Robert Langer, the

VitaKey delivery technology

platform for nutrients

is based on technology

licensed from the

Massachusetts Institute of

Technology and developed

at the Langer Lab, the

largest academic biomedical

engineering lab in the world.

Utilising VitaKey’s

proprietary technology

and customised solutions,

Fonterra is looking to

design dairy products that

incorporate targeted and

time-controlled release of

specific dairy nutrients,

starting with probiotics,

in a way that locks in the

freshness for longer and

allows the nutrients to be

more active and beneficial in

the body.

Judith Swales, CEO for

Fonterra’s Asia Pacific region,

says the collaboration is

part of Fonterra’s long-term

strategy and ambition to be

a leader in dairy innovation

and nutrition science.

“Our Co-op has a long and

proud heritage of dairy

innovation, pioneering many

world firsts and, increasingly,

new solutions which aim to

help people live healthier

and longer lives.

“Home to one of the largest

dairy culture libraries in

the world, our Research

and Development Centre

contains more than 40,000

strains. Two of these strains,

LactoB 001 and BifidoB 019,

address key health concerns

such as digestive issues and

immunity and are recognised

as being in the top five

global probiotics.

“By partnering with VitaKey,

we aim to ‘make nature

better’ by combining

the goodness of our

New Zealand milk with

VitaKey’s technology. In

this way, we can really

drive our Active Living

business by appealing to

the growing health and

wellness consumer segment

that desire the maximum

functional benefits from

food and are motivated by

scientific credibility.

“Because the nutrients are

encapsulated and highly

targeted, it also means we

can use less milk in our

production, making our milk

go further while reducing

food waste,” says Ms. Swales.

The first step in the

collaboration aims to

stabilise probiotics and

deliver them to the digestive

tract. This will leverage

related MIT technology

developed in the Langer

Lab that NASA may use

to deliver probiotics to

astronauts in their planned

mission to Mars.

VitaKey’s founder, Dr. Langer,

has extensive experience

in commercialising science,

resulting in more than

40 biotech companies with

an estimated market value

of $250 billion. The VitaKey

delivery platform has already

been shown to preserve

and enhance 11 different

micro-nutrients, including

Vitamin D, A, B12, and C as

well as iron, zinc, niacin, and

folic acid. Fonterra intends

to leverage the VitaKey

technology across a range

of micro-nutrients, such as

Vitamin D, and introduce

them into its products.

Dr. Langer, who oversees

more than 150 researchers at

MIT, says that the technology

can be customised for every

link of the food supply chain.

Dr. Langer’s vision for

Fonterra and VitaKey

working together is “to do

something that really can

change the world, rather

than something incremental.”

He is excited to collaborate

with Fonterra to help further

unlock dairy’s nutrition.

“The Covid pandemic has

underscored the need for

solutions to enhance health

and wellness and boost the

immunity of men, women

and children at every stage

of life. We believe that

good nutritious food can

help people of all ages

lead healthier lives,” says

Dr. Langer.

Dr. Robert Langer, co-founder of Vitakey

A day in the life of a
Tanker Operator

Ever wondered what a day in

the life of a Fonterra Tanker

Operator is like?

Take a look at the video to

see how a day goes for our

Lower South Island Milk

Collection team based at our

Edendale depot.

And if that isn’t enough for

you, Stirling Tanker Operator

Richard Lumb also tells

his story.

It’s 6.30am in mid-September

and Richard Lumb is listening

to the morning briefing with

the rest of the red team at

our Stirling tanker depot

near Balcultha. Richard

shares the tanker with a

member of each of the blue

and green teams.

“We work three days starting

at 6.30am if it’s mornings

and then three nights

starting at 5pm and then

three days off so it’s a nine-

day roster. On days you work

about nine hours and drive

up to 500kms and nights are

usually about ten hours or a

bit more and you’re driving

up to 650kms.”

His family don’t mind the

roster, especially as he’s

often around to help out

with kids’ sports, cook dinner

and do renovations on the

house. “I can’t be there every

Saturday for sport – but I

do make it there for most of

them. When I started with

the Co-op back in 2018 the

kids suddenly noticed I was

around a lot more.”

His kids and wife have all

been on a run in the tanker

with him. The depot holds

two days every year when

family or friends can ride in

the cab.

But now, with an empty

tanker, he’s heading for his

first dairy farm in Waipahi

about 50km away. All the

information, including the

route, is on the Incab display

mounted on the cab’s floor

to Richard’s left. “It shows

your fuel consumption –

we’re aiming to reduce fuel

burn every season.”

Richard is at his first pickup.

There’s no one around and

he drives up to the vat, gets

out and hooks up the hose

to the vat and starts the

process, getting three pottles

ready for sampling. “The kids

on the farms are great. They

love seeing the tanker.”

“Making sure everything is

okay on the farm is really

important for Fonterra and

if we can help, or get help to

someone, we do it.”

With volumes changing

day to day, especially in the

Spring, the route is always

different. “No two days

are ever the same. You go

places you would never

go otherwise. It’s been an

awesome way to see the

South Island.”

Richard’s always had a

passion for driving. “I had

someone ask me when I was

younger what I wanted to do

and I said ‘I’ve always wanted

to drive milk tankers’ and he

said ‘only dropouts became

truck drivers’, so I didn’t do

it. I shouldn’t have listened

to him.”

He worked doing forestry

roading and other trucking

jobs in Northland then

decided a move south, to

Balclutha, at the other end

of the country and his family

haven’t looked back. “The

kids love it down here. The

weather is so much better.”

And today, there are

thousands of lambs being

born all along his route.

Our Co-op

8

PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

DEC JUL 

JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR 

LIQUID MILK M LITRES

















EXPORTS

AUSTRALIA

UNITED STATES

NEW ZEALANDEU

AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC  NOV  OCT SEP MAY 

MT  s














AVERAGE

IMPORTS

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA

ASIACHINA

SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV  JAN DEC  JUL OCT 

MT  s














AVERAGE

9


Supplementary Information

Global Dairy Market

The charts on the right

illustrate the year-on-year

changes in imports, exports

and production for a range of

countries that are important

players in global dairy trade.

The absolute size of

the bars represents the

change in imports, exports

or production, relative

to the same period the

previous year.

Averages are shown where

data is complete for the

regions presented.

NOTE: Data for EU and Australia to September; New Zealand and US to October.

NOTE: Data for EU to August; US and Australia to September; New Zealand to October.

NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to August; China to October.

SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR

MAR

JAN

OCT

FEB

JUL

AUG

MAY

SEP

NOV

DEC JUN

,

,

,

,



,

,

,

,



,

,

WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT

QUANTITY SOLD  MT

10


Supplementary Information

Fonterra milk

production

The table on the right

shows Fonterra milk solids

collected in New Zealand

and Australia compared

to the previous season.

MILK COLLECTION

(MILLION KGMS)

OCTOBER

2021

OCTOBER


2020

MONTHLY

CHANGE

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2021/22

SEASON-

TO-DATE

2020/21

SEASON-

TO-DATE

CHANGE

Total Fonterra

New Zealand

207.0213.1(2.9%)510.9527.5(3.2%)

North Island123.5128.6(3.9%)334.6343.7(2.7%)

South Island83.584.5(1.2%)176.3183.9(4.1%)

Australia11. 812.4(4.8%)34.535.7(3.3%)

Fonterra GDT results

This table provides more

information on the latest

results, including a snapshot

of the year-to-date results.

LAST TRADING EVENT

(16 NOVEMBER 2021)

YEAR-TO-DATE


(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)

Quantity Sold on GDT

(Winning MT)

29,515206,559

Change in Quantity Sold on GDT

over same period last year

(14.7%)(22.8%)

Weighted Average Product Price

(USD/MT)

4,3224,065

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price over same period

last year

36.1%31. 1%

Change in Weighted Average

Product Price from previous event

1.8%–

Fonterra GDT results

This chart shows Fonterra

GDT prices and volumes over

the past 12 months.

11
AMF

Anhydrous Milk Fat.

BMP

Butter Milk Powder.

DIRA

Dairy Industry Restructuring

Act 2001 (New Zealand).

Farmgate Milk Price

The price for milk supplied in

New Zealand to Fonterra by

farmer shareholders.

Fluid Products

The Fonterra grouping

of fluid milk products

(skim milk, whole milk

and cream – pasteurised

or UHT processed),

concentrated milk products

(evaporated milk and

sweetened condensed milk)

and yoghurt.

GDT

Global Dairy Trade, the

online provider of the twice

monthly global auctions of

dairy ingredients.

kgMS

Kilogram of milk solids, the

measure of the amount of

fat and protein in the milk

supplied to Fonterra.

MPC

Milk Protein Concentrate.

Non-Reference Products

All dairy products, except

for Reference Products,

produced by the NZ

Ingredients business.

Reference Products

The dairy products used

in the calculation of the

Farmgate Milk Price, which

are currently WMP, SMP,

BMP, butter and AMF.


Glossary

Season

New Zealand: A period

of 12 months to 31 May

in each year.

Australia: A period of

12 months to 30 June

in each year.

SMP

Skim Milk Powder.

WMP

Whole Milk Powder.

WPC

Whey Protein Concentrate.

Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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