Global Dairy Update January 2022
• Farmers vote in favour of Fonterra’s Flexible
Shareholding structure.
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• Monthly production decline observed across
all regions.
• Australia and US monthly exports continue
to grow. New Zealand and EU monthly
exports decline.
• China and Asia monthly imports decline.
Middle East and Africa, and Latin America
monthly imports up.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collection for
December was 173.4 million kgMS, down 5.3%
on December the prior season.
• Fonterra Australia milk collection for
December was 11.3 million kgMS, down 0.6%
on December last season.
• Anchor™ turns the tap on for a more sustainable flat white.
Key Dates
December to February 2022
Application Period to
Supply Fonterra
17 March 2022
FY22 Interim Results
Announcement
May 2022
FY22 Q3
Business Update
JANUARY 2022
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for the 12 months to
December 2021
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
0.10.85.0
0.90.11.4
0.5
0.1
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
Monthly production
decline observed across
all regions
New Zealand milk
production¹ decreased
5.0% on a litres basis, (down
5.5% on milk solids basis)
in December compared to
December the year prior.
Weather conditions in the
early part of December
provided good moisture,
before becoming dry and
very warm in the final
week of the month in
most regions.
New Zealand milk
production for the 12 months
to December was flat on the
year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported
for December, see page 5
for details.
Australia milk
production decreased 0.8%
in November compared to
November the year prior.
After forecasting growth
of up to 2% for FY22,
both Dairy Australia and
Rabobank have revised their
forecasts down; Rabobank
to -1.8% and Dairy Australia
to "unlikely to see growth
in FY22".
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to November
was 0.9% lower than the
year prior.
Fonterra collections in
Australia are reported
for December, see page 5
for details.
EU milk production²
decreased 0.5% in October
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower production volumes
year on year were driven
by Germany, Netherlands
and France but partially
offset by an increase in
Italy's production.
EU milk production for the
12 months to October was up
0.1% compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by higher volumes in Italy
and Ireland, but largely offset
by declines in Germany,
France and Netherlands.
US milk production
decreased by 0.1% in
December, compared to the
same period the year prior.
Weaker production was
driven by continuing herd
size contractions and lower
milk per cow yield as input
costs remain high.
Milk production for the
12 months to December was
1.4% higher compared to the
same period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
Australia and US monthly
exports continue to grow.
New Zealand and EU
monthly exports decline
Total New Zealand dairy
exports decreased by 0.6%,
or 2,505 MT, in November
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower shipments of SMP,
AMF, WMP and butter
to South East Asia were
partially offset by record
shipments of fluid milk
products to China.
Exports for the 12 months
to November were up by
3.5%, or 121,319 MT, on the
previous comparable period.
This was primarily driven
by WMP, fluid milk product
and cheese.
EU dairy exports
decreased 4.5%, or
26,476 MT, in October
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower exports of cultured
products, cheese and infant
formula, down a combined
27,261 MT, were partially
offset by stronger demand
for MPC, whey, lactose
and SMP.
Exports for the 12 months to
October were up 0.4%, or
25,175 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven
by increases in fluid milk
products and whey, and
partially offset by declines
in cultured products, infant
formula, butter and WMP.
US dairy exports
increased 19.8%, or
38,210 MT, in November
compared to the same
period the year prior with
gains observed across most
product categories.
Strong demand for SMP
and cheese to Mexico, as
well as lactose to China
and Singapore, are driving
this increase.
Exports for the 12 months
to November 2021 were up
10.4%, or 260,989 MT, on
the previous comparable
period, driven by whey, SMP,
cheese, fluid milk products
and butter, up a combined
244,854 MT.
Australia dairy exports
increased 66.1%, or
43,558 MT, in November
compared to the same
period the year prior.
November exports were
higher than normal, driven
by high demand from China
for fluid milk products, up
30,739 MT, and an increase in
SMP and cheese exports.
Exports for the 12 months to
November were up 17.8%, or
132,202 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, and also SMP
and WMP, but partially offset
by declines in infant formula.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for November 2021
compared to November 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
Change for the 12 months
to November 2021
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
19.866.10.6
17.8
4.5
10.40.43.5
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
China and Asia monthly
imports decline. Middle
East and Africa, and
Latin America monthly
imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes¹ increased
6.2%, or 10,356 MT, in
October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The increase was driven
by higher demand for
cheese to Mexico and
Dominican Republic.
Imports for the 12 months
to October were up 3.8%, or
75,732 MT, compared to the
same period the year prior.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes¹
decreased 0.4%, or 1,441 MT,
in October compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven by
lower volumes of fluid milk
products to Taiwan, partially
offset by higher demand
for whey to Indonesia
and Bangladesh.
Imports for the 12 months to
October were down 1.5%, or
74,048 MT, compared to the
same period the year prior,
driven by lower volumes of
WMP and SMP, and offset
by an increase in whey
and cheese.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes¹
increased 30.1%, or
103,043 MT, in October
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was
predominantly driven by
higher volumes of SMP to
Algeria, and of fluid milk
products and cheese to Iraq.
Imports for the 12 months
to October were up 3.7%,
or 179,882 MT, compared
to October the year prior,
driven by increases in
cheese, infant formula and
ice cream.
China dairy import
volumes decreased by
13. 0%, or 42,365 MT, in
December compared to
December 2020, which
was a record month for
China imports.
Declines were observed
in WMP and SMP import
volumes as supply is limited.
Whey imports were also
down as hog herds in China
decline, decreasing the
demand for whey as feed.
Imports for the 12 months to
December were up 18.0%, or
630,474 MT, driven by fluid
milk products, WMP, whey
and SMP, partially offset by
decreases in infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for October 2021
compared to October 2020
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
Change for the 12 months
to October 2021
13.0
0.46.2
1.53.7
%
Change for the 12 months
to December 2021
18.0
30.1
3.8
%
%
To view a table that shows our
detailed milk collection in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 31 December
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Season-to-date
1 June to 31 December
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
Change for December 2021
compared to December 2020
0.62.97.05.3
1.23.13.23.1
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collection
Fonterra's Australia
collections
for December
were 11.3 million kgMS, a
0.6% decrease on December
last season.
Fonterra collections across
Australia for the season-to-date
are 58.3 kgMS, a 1.2% decline
on last season.
After wetter and cooler spring
conditions, rainfall totals in
December were well below
average reducing growth
rates and pasture availability,
resulting in poor quality silage.
North Island milk
collections in December were
98.3 million kgMS, 7.0% lower
than December last season.
Season-to-date collections
are 543.1 million kgMS, 3.2%
behind last season.
Near record temperatures
and periods of heavy rain in
many regions contributed
to poor grass quality across
much of the North Island. Early
December collections reduced
sharply before showing some
recovery in the second half of
the month, but not enough to
make up the lost ground.
South Island milk
collections in December were
75.1 million kgMS, 2.9% lower
than December last season.
Season-to-date collections are
331.4 million kgMS, 3.1% behind
last season.
The South Island was generally
less impacted than the North
Island by the weather and
pasture quality issues. Otago
and Southland were the
only regions in the country
where December collections
remained consistent at or
above December last season.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for December
were 173.4 million kgMS,
5.3% down on last December.
Season-to-date collections are
874.6 million kgMS, 3.1% behind
last season.
Settled weather across most of
the country at the beginning
of December gave way to
heavy rain that moved up
the South Island to the lower
North Island. Warm and fine
weather returned in the final
week of the month, leading into
a very warm new year, bringing
with it a watch out for heat
stress in some areas.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2021/22 season
Forecast milk collection for the
2021/22 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
8.90-
9.50
1, 5 0 0
M
kgMS
Outlook for Fonterra in New Zealand
%
%
%
%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
JAN
AUG
JAN
APR
JUN
AUG
NOV
JAN
APR
JUN
NOV
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
The NZD/USD stabilised
around 68 US cents through
the summer holiday period
and into January. The NZD
faces headwinds from a
strengthening USD and a
cooling Chinese economy,
however, it remains supported
by strong commodity prices and
rising domestic interest rates.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
18 January 2022:
The next trading event will be held on 1 February 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
5.0
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,473
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
30.0
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 6,720/MT
0.8
AMF
USD 4,082/MT
5.6
WMP
USD 6,158/MT
4.9
BUTTER
USD 3,960/MT
5.0
SMP
USD 5,546/MT
1.1
CHEDDAR
29,991
MT
LATEST AUCTION
326,186
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Farmers vote in favour
of Fonterra’s Flexible
Shareholding structure
Fonterra shareholders have
given the Co-operative’s
new Flexible Shareholding
structure the green light
with 85.16% of the total
farmer vote in support of
the proposal.
The final votes on the
capital structure proposal
were cast at a Special
Meeting in Invercargill on
9 December 2021.
Chairman Peter McBride
says the Board and
Management are united in
the belief that the Flexible
Shareholding structure is
the best course of action for
the Co-operative.
“Our farmers have agreed.
We have received a strong
mandate for change with
85.16% of votes cast in favour
of the proposal and 82.65%
of eligible votes being cast.
“Changing our capital
structure is the most
important decision we as
farmers have made in almost
a decade. The results of
this year’s Annual Meeting
resolutions were all above
80%, which shows farmers
are united in their support
for the direction of the
Co-op. Our full focus is now
on delivering the strategic
commitments we have made.
“I would like to thank
everyone who voted and
the thousands of farmers
who gave us their time and
ideas during the consultation
period, which helped us to
shape the proposal into the
model that was successfully
passed in December.”
With a clear farmer mandate
for change, Fonterra is
continuing to work with
the Government on how to
effect the changes under the
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act (DIRA), the legislation
that enabled the formation
of Fonterra back in 2001.
“I believe we are
philosophically aligned with
the Government and remain
confident that we can find
a regulatory framework
that supports the Flexible
Shareholding structure.
“The strong mandate
we received will support
our conversations with
the Government as
we continue to work
together to find a mutually
acceptable outcome.
“We will continue to
keep farmers and unit
holders updated as these
conversations progress.”
The Flexible Shareholding
structure will come
into effect once the
Board is satisfied that
any steps necessary for
implementation have been
(or will be) completed. The
Co-operative is aiming to
implement the changes as
soon as possible from the
beginning of next season.
Share compliance obligations
will remain on hold until at
least six months after the
new structure is effective.
The current cap on the
Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund
remains in place as a cap
is a feature of the Flexible
Shareholding structure.
Our Performance
Anchor™ turns the
tap on for a more
sustainable flat white
Fancy your latte or flat white
from a source that produces
less waste and is better for
the environment?
Our Fonterra Brands
New Zealand (FBNZ) team
is kicking off an exciting
trial which will see baristas
making the same great
coffee, but with a more
sustainable pour, using
‘Anchor™ café milk taps’.
This is another step
in Anchor™ taking a
leadership position around
sustainability and follows on
from the launch of Anchor’s
plant-based bottle and the
specialised milks range
being carbon zero (Anchor™
Organic, Protein+, Zero
Lacto, Silver Top and Calci+).
FBNZ Director for Marketing,
Mike Boness says: “The
Anchor™ café milk tap is
connected to a recyclable
10 litre bladder, filled
with milk, which replaces
five 2-litre standard milk
bottles and results in 65%
less plastic.”
“Cafés and coffee shops will
also benefit because the milk
tap measures the precise
amount of milk into coffee
cups, which means less
waste and ultimately reduces
their costs,” says Mike.
Anchor will be trialling
10 milk taps across the
country and taking feedback
from customers.
The first trial café is Emporio
Coffee located in Wellington,
the coffee capital of
New Zealand.
Eric Heycoop, Emporio
Coffee Owner, says he’s
excited about the taps as
more people are wanting
to know that their food
and drinks are being served
more sustainably.
“Because there is less
waste and spillage with
every pour from the taps, it
means less cost for us and
increased productivity and
time savings for the baristas
making coffee.”
“From our perspective it
also enhances the whole
café experience because
it gives us more time to
connect with our customers,”
says Eric.
Mike Boness says, “the
Open Innovation Team
from Fonterra Research
Development Centre in
Palmerston North has
conducted an evaluation
of the available tap
systems. The MilkIt system
(supplied out of Israel) was
recommended as the best fit
for Anchor™ proceeding to
trial in cafés.”
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN MAY FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to October; Australia to November; New Zealand and US to December.
NOTE: Data for EU to October; New Zealand, US and Australia to November.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to October; China to December.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR
MAR
JAN OCT
FEB
JUL
AUG
MAY
SEP
NOV
DEC
JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
DECEMBER
2021
DECEMBER
2020
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
173.4183.1(5.3%)874.6902.9(3.1%)
North Island98.3105.8(7.0%)543.1560.9(3.2%)
South Island75.177.3(2.9%)331.4342.0(3.1%)
Australia11. 311. 4(0.6%)58.359.0(1.2%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(18 JANUARY 2022)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
29,991326,186
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
5.0%(15.8%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,4734,163
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
23.3%30.0%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
5.0%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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