Global Dairy Update May 2022
• Third quarter business update.
• Grass-fed gaining traction in Vietnam.
For further details,
view our website –
1
Global Dairy
UPDATE
• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly
production continues to decline. EU monthly
production increases.
• EU and New Zealand monthly exports decline,
Australia and US exports continue to grow.
• Sharp decline in China monthly imports.
Latin America monthly imports down.
Middle East & Africa and Asia imports up.
• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for
April were 112.1 million kgMS, down 5.1% on
April last season. At the end of April, season-
to-date collections were 3.8% down on last
season.
• Fonterra Australia collections for April were
7.9 million kgMS, a 2.0% decrease on April last
season and down 1.2% for the season-to-date
compared to the prior season.
• Fonterra expands seaweed trial.
Key Dates
1 June 2022
Start of the 2022/23 Season
31 July 2022
End of FY22 Financial Year
September 2022
FY22 Annual Results
Announcement
M AY 2 02 2
%
%
%%
%
%
%%
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for March 2022
compared to March 2021
Change for February 2022
compared to February 2021
Change for the 12 months to
April 2022
Change for the 12 months
to April 2022
Change for the 12 months
to March 2022
Change for the 12 months
to February 2022
1.05.15.6
2.30.20.4
0.7
3.7
2
OUR MARKETS
Global Production
New Zealand, Australia
and US monthly
production continues
to decline, EU monthly
production increases
New Zealand milk
production¹ decreased 5.6%
on a litres basis, (down 5.2%
on milk solids basis) in April
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Warm, dry and generally
unfavourable conditions
continued into April, impacting
pastures and milk production.
Some beneficial rain was
observed in parts of the
South Island.
New Zealand milk production
for the 12 months to April was
down 3.7% on the year prior.
Fonterra New Zealand
collections are reported for
April, see page 5 for details.
Australia milk production
decreased 5.1% in March
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Production continued to
decline year-on-year, as a result
of below average rainfall, labour
constraints, and increasing
input prices.
Australia milk production for
the 12 months to March was
2.3% lower than the year prior.
Both Dairy Australia and
Rabobank have revised
their FY22 forecasts down,
Rabobank to -3.5% and Dairy
Australia to -1% to -3%.
Fonterra collections in Australia
are reported for April, see
page 5 for details.
EU milk production² was up
0.7% in February compared to
the same period the year prior.
Increases in Poland, Italy,
Ireland and Austria production
were offset by ongoing
weaker production observed
in Netherlands, France
and Germany.
EU milk production for the 12
months to February was up
0.2% compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by increases in Italy, Ireland,
Poland and Hungary and offset
by decreases in Germany,
Netherlands and France.
US milk production
decreased by 1.0% in April,
compared to the same period
the year prior.
Smaller herd sizes compared
to this time last year are
contributing to the decrease
in production. Rising feed and
fuel prices are a constraint to
the rebuilding of milk herds.
Milk production for the 12
months to April was 0.4%
higher compared to the same
period the year prior.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production –
1 New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2 Excludes UK.
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports –
3
OUR MARKETS
Global Exports
EU and New Zealand
monthly exports decline,
Australia and US exports
continue to grow
Total New Zealand
dairy exports were down
0.9%, or 2,501 MT, in April
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower shipments of WMP
to China and Sri Lanka given
the lock-down and economic
disruptions. Offsetting
the decline, was stronger
demand for SMP from South
East Asia, for butter from
China and South East Asia
and for AMF from Mexico
and Denmark.
Exports for the 12 months to
April were down by 0.8%, or
27,407 MT, on the previous
comparable period. This was
primarily driven by decreases
in WMP and AMF and infant
formula but partially offset
by increases in fluid milk
products, casein, and SMP.
EU dairy exports
decreased 7.8%, or
44,067 MT, in February
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Lower exports volumes
were driven by decreases
in fluid milk products, SMP
and whey, partially offset by
increases in cheese, cultured
products, butter and lactose.
Exports for the 12 months
to February were down
1.9%, or 139,780 MT, on the
previous comparable period,
driven by declines in infant
formula, cultured products,
WMP, SMP and butter and
partially offset by increases
in fluid milk products, cheese
and MPC.
US dairy exports remain
high and increased 0.5%, or
1,260 MT, in March compared
to the same period the
year prior.
Strong demand continued
for cheese to Mexico and
South Korea as well as butter
to Canada. Exports of WPC
to China also grew. This
was partially offset by lower
shipments of SMP, lactose
and smaller volumes of whey
to China.
Exports for the 12 months to
March 2022 were up 7.3%, or
188,717 MT, on the previous
comparable period, driven by
cheese, lactose, whey, SMP
and fluid milk products.
Australia dairy
exports increased 26.5%,
or 19,287 MT, in March
compared to the same
period the year prior.
Strong export volumes in
March continue to be driven
by high demand for fluid
milk products from China,
up 14,016 MT. Increases in
WMP and other powders and
cheese exports were also
observed.
Exports for the 12 months
to March were up 21.2%, or
164,989 MT, on the previous
comparable period.
This was predominantly
driven by increases in fluid
milk products, as well as SMP
and WMP.
NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNIONUSA
%%%
%
%
%
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for March 2022
compared to March 2021
Change for March 2022
compared to March 2021
Change for February 2022
compared to February 2021
Change for the 12 months
to April 2022
Change for the 12 months
to March 2022
Change for the 12 months
to March 2022
Change for the 12 months
to February 2022
0.526.50.9
21.2
7.8
7.31.90.8
%
%
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports –
4
OUR MARKETS
Global Imports
Sharp decline in China
monthly imports.
Latin America monthly
imports down. Middle
East and Africa and Asia
imports up
Latin America dairy
import volumes
¹ decreased
2.3%, or 3,692 MT, in
February compared to the
same period the year prior.
The decrease was driven
by lower demand for
WMP to Brazil and Cuba,
and fluid milk products to
the Dominican Republic
and Chile.
Imports for the 12 months
to February were up 3.4%
compared to the same
period the year prior, driven
by higher volumes of cheese,
SMP, whey and butter and
partially offset by declines
in WMP.
Asia (excluding China)
dairy import volumes
¹
increased 9.4%, or
34,709 MT, in February
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven by
higher demand for SMP to
the Philippines and Thailand,
WMP to Vietnam and lactose
to Japan.
Imports for the 12 months
to February were up 3.7%, or
177,623 MT, compared to the
same period the year prior,
driven by higher volumes
of whey, cheese, SMP and
WPC and partially offset by a
decrease in WMP.
Middle East and Africa
dairy import volumes
¹
increased 15. 6%, or
58,719 MT, in February
compared to the same
period the year prior.
The increase was driven
by higher volumes across
most product categories,
and specifically of SMP to
Egypt and Algeria, cheese to
Libya and Egypt, and WMP
to Oman.
Imports for the 12 months
to February were up 7.7%,
or 368,791 MT, compared
to February the year prior,
driven by increases in
cheese, fluid milk products
and SMP.
China dairy import
volumes
decreased by
21.2%, or 73,377 MT, in April
compared to the same
period the year prior, which
were historically high.
Lower volumes were
observed across most
products in April as lock-
down disruptions continue,
and more specifically fluid
milk products, whey, SMP
and WMP imports. Volumes
of butter and WPC increased
year-on-year.
Imports for the 12 months
to April were up 1.4%, or
54,096 MT, driven by WMP,
SMP and fluid milk products,
partially offset by decreases
in whey and infant formula.
LATIN AMERICAASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICACHINA
1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.
%
%
%%
%
Change for February 2022
compared to February 2021
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for February 2022
compared to February 2021
Change for February 2022
compared to February 2021
Change for the 12 months
to February 2022
Change for the 12 months
to February 2022
Change for the 12 months
to February 2022
21.2
9.42.3
3.77.7
%
Change for the 12 months
to April 2022
1.4
15.6
3.4
%
%
To view a table that shows
detailed milk collections in New
Zealand and Australia compared
to the previous season –
%
%%
Season-to-date
1 July to 30 April
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 April
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 April
Season-to-date
1 June to 30 April
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
Change for April 2022
compared to April 2021
2.05.05.25.1
1.23.24.23.8
VOLUME M LITRESDAY
JUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
5
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Milk Collections
NEW ZEALANDNORTH ISLANDSOUTH ISLANDAUSTRALIA
New Zealand Milk Collections
Fonterra's Australia
collections
for April were
7.9 million kgMS, a 2.0%
decrease on April last season.
Volumes from third party
collections decreased
0.5m kgMS year-on-year and
were largely offset by increased
farm collections of 0.4m kgMS
from new suppliers who have
joined this season.
Fonterra collections across
Australia for the nine months
for the season-to-date were
91. 1 million kgMS, a 1.2%
decline on last season.
North Island milk
collections in April were
60.9 million kgMS, 5.2% behind
April last season.
Season-to-date collections
were 833.0 million kgMS, 4.2%
behind last season.
Warm, dry conditions
continued to affect key milking
regions, with some farmers
opting to conserve feed
through once-a-day milking
and drying off parts of herds
earlier than normal.
South Island milk
collections in April were
51.2 million kgMS, 5.0% lower
than last April.
Season-to-date collections
were 575.5 million kgMS, 3.2%
behind last season.
The warm and dry conditions
that have adversely impacted
milk production particularly in
the lower South Island, were
alleviated to a degree by rain
that arrived in the middle of
the month.
Fonterra's New Zealand
collections for April were
112.1 million kgMS, 5.1% lower
than last April.
Season-to-date collections
were 1,408.5 million kgMS,
3.8% behind last season.
April saw warm, dry conditions
with only isolated showers
in parts, providing improved
pasture growing conditions.
Milk volumes are generally
declining as expected at this
stage of the season as farmers
prepare for next season,
ensuring pasture covers and
cows are in good condition.
%%%
Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for
the 2022/23 season
Forecast milk collection for the
2022/23 season
NZD
per
kgMS
%
8.25-
9.75
1, 5 10
M
kgMS
Outlook for Fonterra
in New Zealand
%
The inclusion of off-GDT sales
contributed approximately
11 cents per kgMS to the
Milk Price for the season
to 30 April 2022.
%
%
%%
%
To view more information,
including a snapshot of the
rolling year-to-date results –
%
6
GDT PRICE INDEXNZDUSD SPOT RATE
MAY DEC MAY
JUL
OCT
DEC
MAR MAY JUL OCT MAR
,
,
,
,
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
PRICE INDEX
NZD USD
OUR MARKETS
Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Results
Fonterra GDT sales
by destination:
Dairy commodity
prices and New
Zealand dollar trend
A combination of elevated
geopolitical risk (chiefly the war
in Ukraine), a rapid tightening
of US monetary conditions
and a degradation in the global
economic outlook resulted in
strong demand for US dollars;
the NZD/USD exchange rate
declined sharply to below
63 US cents before recovering.
Fonterra GDT results at
last trading event
17 May 2022:
The next trading event will be held on 7 June 2022. Visit www.globaldairytrade.info for more information.
Change in Fonterra’s
weighted average product
price from previous event
0.0
Fonterra’s weighted
average product price
(USD/MT)
4,442
USD
Fonterra product quantity
sold on GDT
000’ MT
23.8
NORTH ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA)
SOUTH EAST ASIA
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
USD 5,750/MT
1.0
BUTTER
USD 5,635/MT
1.0
CHEDDAR
USD 3,934/MT
0.5
WMP
USD 6,043/MT
0.6
AMF
USD 4,141/MT
0.9
SMP
23,760
MT
LATEST AUCTION
513,727
MT
FINANCIAL
YEAR‑TO‑DATE
7
Grass-fed gaining
traction in Vietnam
As Fonterra focuses on
growing our business in
South East Asia, customers
are starting to see the value
in its grass-fed claims.
In Vietnam, one customer,
Nutifood, has just released
100% New Zealand
Grass-Fed milk, the first of its
kind in the country.
Nutifood makes products
including formulas, ready-
to-drink milks and yoghurts
that help with nutritional
needs and the physical
development of the
Vietnamese population.
Mr. Vo Hoang Anh, Vice
President Marketing at
Nutifood, says consumers in
Vietnam are becoming more
interested in foods that are
natural and of a high quality
– and what is more natural
than grass-fed milk from
New Zealand?
“Vietnamese consumers
are aware of the benefits
of grass-fed milk, meaning
Fonterra’s sustainability
claims and provenance story
has provided a key point
of difference.”
In Vietnam, dairy products
make up 10% of the
average total food cost,
so while already a popular
part of the everyday diet,
the majority of dairy is
imported. By leveraging
Fonterra’s provenance
story claims, Nutifood can
differentiate themselves in
the competitive market.
“The New Zealand origin has
become a trustworthy signal
in the eye of consumers – it
indicates a healthy, nutritious
and premium dairy product.”
says Mr. Vo Hoang Anh.
Sustainability claims are
expected to drive sales in the
coming years and by getting
ahead of this, Nutifood can
become a main player in
this story.
“Customers see the value
in milk being grass-fed and
the New Zealand name” says
Mr. Vo Hoang Anh.
New Zealand is the perfect
place to grow grass – the
combination of climate and
nutrient rich soils make
the ideal conditions for
pasture-fed dairy farming.
Cows are 96% grass-fed
and spend over 350 days a
year on grass, which is more
than anywhere else in the
world. This is important for
producing high quality and
nutritious milk.
You can see from this
branding alone how
important our provenance
story is to the consumer.
It just goes to show
the unique value of the
New Zealand name.
Our Performance
Fonterra expands
seaweed trial Fonterra
farmers have
first access
Last month the Co-op
announced it is expanding
on-farm trials of methane
reducing Asparagopsis
seaweed, as part of its
commitment to helping solve
the methane challenge.
In partnership with
Australian company Sea
Forest, Fonterra is looking at
the potential Asparagopsis
seaweed has in reducing
methane in a grass-fed
farming system.
Fonterra General Manager
of Sustainability APAC,
Jack Holden, says our
grass-fed farming model
makes Fonterra one of
the most carbon efficient
producers of dairy in
the world. “However, we
have an aspiration to be
net zero by 2050 and we
are investing in R&D and
partnerships to help find
a solution to reducing
methane emissions.”
CSIRO research has
shown that Asparagopsis
seaweed has the potential
to reduce emissions by over
80 per cent in laboratory
trials, and while Fonterra
understands the reductions
will vary out of the lab, all
reductions count.
“As with all methane
solutions we’re trialling,
what we need to find out
is whether we can use this
supplement in a way that
is safe for cows, safe for
consumers and to ensure
that there is no impact on
milk taste or quality,” says
Jack Holden.
“Over the past two years,
900 dairy cows on a farm in
Australia have been fed small
amounts of the seaweed
supplement and the results
have been promising at each
stage. We are now expanding
the trial across three
additional farms, to test the
supplement’s application at a
commercial-scale.
“This will include
understanding the
practicalities of using the
seaweed supplement as
part of normal farming
operations, which is critical
because it needs to be easy
to implement and beneficial
for farmers if we want it to
be widely adopted.”
“If the trial proves successful,
we have agreed with Sea
Forest that Fonterra farmers
will have first access to the
commercial Asparagopsis
solution,” says Jack Holden.
Sea Forest CEO and Founder
Sam Elsom says last year
the company bought an
additional 30ha farm as
it dramatically increases
its production of the
seaweed supplement.
“Asparagopsis is a common
seaweed native to the
waters of Tasmania and
New Zealand, and we’re the
first in the world to cultivate
it at a commercial scale
through both marine and
land-based aquaculture.
“We needed a food industry
partner to help us take this
to a commercial scale, and
we partnered with Fonterra
because of its commitment
to sustainability
and innovation.
“We’re looking forward to
working with Fonterra on
the next phase, and although
we’re still in trial phases, we
believe this has potential,”
says Sam.
Fonterra believes there
will be no single solution
to the methane challenge,
with Asparagopsis one of
a number of solutions it is
looking at.
Other work the Co-op is
carrying out includes:
• Tapping into its large
collection of dairy
cultures to create new
fermentations we’re calling
Kowbucha™, which could
inhibit the methanogens
that create methane
in cows.
• Working with Royal DSM,
a global science-based
company, to test whether
DSM’s feed additive
product Bovaer®, which
reduces methane emissions
from cows by over 30%
in non-pasture-based
farming systems, can do
the same in New Zealand’s
pasture-based
farming systems.
• With MPI and DairyNZ,
expanding a promising
trial with Nestlé to
include plantain in a
cow’s diet to reduce
the amount of nitrogen
produced, reducing carbon
emissions and improving
freshwater quality.
Our Co-op
8
PRODUCTION
AUSTRALIAAVERAGE
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
DEC JUL
JUN MAY MAR FEB JAN SEP NOV OCT AUG APR
LIQUID MILK M LITRES
EXPORTS
AUSTRALIA
UNITED STATES
NEW ZEALANDEU
AUG JUL JUN APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP MAY
MT s
AVERAGE
IMPORTS
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICALATIN AMERICA
ASIACHINA
SEP AUG JUN
MAY
FEB MAR APR NOV JAN DEC JUL OCT
MT s
AVERAGE
9
Supplementary Information
Global Dairy Market
The charts on the right
illustrate the year-on-year
changes in imports, exports
and production for a range of
countries that are important
players in global dairy trade.
The absolute size of
the bars represents the
change in imports, exports
or production, relative
to the same period the
previous year.
Averages are shown where
data is complete for the
regions presented.
NOTE: Data for EU to February; Australia to March; New Zealand and US to April.
NOTE: Data for EU to February; US and Australia to March; New Zealand to April.
NOTE: Data for Asia, Middle East & Africa and Latin America to February; China to April.
SOURCES: Government milk production statistics (DCANZ, Dairy Australia, Eurostat, USDA)/GTA trade data/Fonterra analysis.
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICEQUANTITY SOLD
APR MAR JAN OCT FEB JUL AUG MAY SEP NOV DEC JUN
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE USDMT
QUANTITY SOLD MT
10
Supplementary Information
Fonterra milk
production
The table on the right
shows Fonterra milk solids
collected in New Zealand
and Australia compared
to the previous season.
MILK COLLECTION
(MILLION KGMS)
APRIL
2022
APRIL
2021
MONTHLY
CHANGE
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2021/22
SEASON-
TO-DATE
2020/21
SEASON-
TO-DATE
CHANGE
Total Fonterra
New Zealand
112.1118.2(5.1%)1,408.51,464.0(3.8%)
North Island60.964.3(5.2%)833.0869.8(4.2%)
South Island51.253.9(5.0%)575.5594.3(3.2%)
Australia7.98.1(2.0%)91.192.1(1.2%)
Fonterra GDT results
This table provides more
information on the latest
results, including a snapshot
of the year-to-date results.
LAST TRADING EVENT
(17 MAY 2022)
YEAR-TO-DATE
(FROM 1 AUGUST 2021)
Quantity Sold on GDT
(Winning MT)
23,760513,727
Change in Quantity Sold on GDT
over same period last year
17.6%(11. 4%)
Weighted Average Product Price
(USD/MT)
4,4424,403
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price over same period
last year
5.4%26.2%
Change in Weighted Average
Product Price from previous event
0.0%–
Fonterra GDT results
This chart shows Fonterra
GDT prices and volumes over
the past 12 months.
11
AMF
Anhydrous Milk Fat.
BMP
Butter Milk Powder.
Cultured Products
Fermented milks that are
prepared by using starter
cultures and controlled
fermentation including
yoghurt, yoghurt drinks, sour
cream, crème fraiche.
DIRA
Dairy Industry Restructuring
Act 2001 (New Zealand).
Farmgate Milk Price
The price for milk supplied in
New Zealand to Fonterra by
farmer shareholders.
Fluid Products
The Fonterra grouping
of fluid milk products
(skim milk, whole milk
and cream – pasteurised
or UHT processed),
concentrated milk products
(evaporated milk and
sweetened condensed milk)
and yoghurt.
GDT
Global Dairy Trade, the
online provider of the twice
monthly global auctions of
dairy ingredients.
kgMS
Kilogram of milk solids, the
measure of the amount of
fat and protein in the milk
supplied to Fonterra.
MPC
Milk Protein Concentrate.
Non-Reference Products
All dairy products, except
for Reference Products,
produced by the NZ
Ingredients business.
Reference Products
The dairy products used
in the calculation of the
Farmgate Milk Price, which
are currently WMP, SMP,
BMP, butter and AMF.
Glossary
Season
New Zealand: A period
of 12 months to 31 May
in each year.
Australia: A period of
12 months to 30 June
in each year.
SMP
Skim Milk Powder.
WMP
Whole Milk Powder.
WPC
Whey Protein Concentrate.
WPI
Whey Protein Isolate.
Data sourced from publicly available filings. Our datasets may not be complete. Automated analysis can produce errors. If you believe any data on this page is incorrect, please contact us at hello@nzxplorer.co.nz. For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
Other issuers discussed similar conditions around this time
Matched by meaning across NZX announcement text, not keywords — based on our semantic index of announcement bodies.
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update May 20222022-05-31
“• Third quarter business update. • Grass-fed gaining traction in Vietnam. For further details, view our website – 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production continues to decline. EU monthly production increases. • EU and New Zealand month…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update April 20222022-04-29
“• Fonterra's Research and Development Centre celebrates 95 years. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production continue to decline. EU monthly production flat. • New Zealand monthly exports flat, Australia and US exports up. EU monthly expor…”
- FCG — Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited: Global Dairy Update June 20222022-06-29
“• Fonterra provides milk price, performance, and strategy update. 1 Global Dairy UPDATE • New Zealand production ends season down on previous season. Monthly declines observed across all regions. • New Zealand, EU and US monthly exports decline, Australia exports contin…”